its a numbers game.. pt.3

Now, after all is said in done, and all cards left, starting with Pascals wager, we can start off with the actual odds at 1/2.

So, Lets start there.

now many religions of this world. I am not counting localized religions, such as ones that are only active in a village or city and nowhere else, we will not count those, this is for simplicties sake, so if we did add them they would only help bring thte total higher.

there is an estimated 35,000 different gods among these religions, this is not counting the minor gods, or saints in the churches. i dont include the minors gods, for roughly the same reason as my first exclusion. (You will see why i ignored the saints as well in a moment.) Now, for the bible to be true, and to assume that all other gods are false, then this becomes a 1 in 35,000 Aprox.

so, lets calculate the odds thus far.

1/2 * 1/35,000

that is

1/70,000

wow, that is not so good is it? Lets keep talking now, lets really stop to figure this.

if we consider the fact that gods existance is also predicated by the fact that his holy book is true, then we need to examine history, we need to quantify that some how.

Lets start at the basic story of creation. Adam and Eve. There are roughly three to four diferent variations on this story, and only one of them is in the bible, the others are in the quran, and one is in the sumarian texts, there also some gnostic retellings of the story aswell, so we will say four.

so we have this now, either adam and eve were true, and that 1 in four is the correct story.

so we have 1/2 * 1/4

or,

1/8

now lets take the revelation story,

either it will or it will not happen,

so that is another 1in two odds.

and there are 5 different end of the world ideas that i know of, and MANY MANY more that speak of an eternal universe, but i wont try and count them, so now its like this.

*

1/2 * 1/5

so that is a 1/10 odds yes?

either it will or it will not end. and it will or wont end exactly like it says in the bible.

now lets take the jesus story, he too falls into the he either did, or did not exist and again there are three different stories about him aswell, ignoring the blatent contradictions in the bible itself, i will point out the christian. islamic, and jewish stories of him, only one is that he is a messiah.

so 1/2 * 1/3

or 1/6.

so we now we tally these all up, and just going by the illogical method of heare say, we have a 1 in 36,000,000 chance of him being the true god.

that is going by just these stories, we are not even arguing facts here, we have ones that would add multiples of millions to these odds, such as the odds of all of the evidence for history being wrong, all of the odds that evolution did not happen, all of the odds that would say that we are almost completly wrong about the history if isreal, and wrong about our history of egeypt aswell!

these are almost uncountable, and i lack the knowledege and experience to even venture a guess here.

but even going by these few stories, and then placing it along side other competing stories, we have a 1 in 36,000,000.

you have about 1 in 15,890,700 of winning the lottery.

now, do you really think that odds is a fair way to argue for god now?

bear in mind, the odds go up more dramaticly when we have to explain why almost all of science is wrong. this is just the odds that this god is telling the truth about the three basic parts of the bible.

im sure that i will get criticized about this, im sure that some math geek will gladly tell me that i figured this wrong, and i should be shot for trying to think, but all i wanted to do was bring a little thought on just how bad the odds could actually be, because i am tired of being told about pascals wager.

we now return you to your regularly scheduled programing.